Clinton or Trump: Who is the Market Choice?
In trading , including forex , it is not only economic data that needs to be analyzed . Even things related to politics cannot be separated from the observations of market participants. Including also political excitement that occurred in the United States, where Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will certainly fight to occupy the Oval Office seat in the White House.
Among market participants in the United States, apparently 45% thought that the market would be better if it turned out to be Hillary Clinton who became President of the United States, while only 34% were “supporting” Donald Trump. At least that is reflected in a survey conducted by E * Trade Financial (ETFC) conducted last July. The survey involves people who have an online trading account with at least $ 10,000 in capital.
Maybe it’s not surprising if the market tends to vote for Clinton compared to Trump. Investors who can be said to be “serious investors” with thousands (or maybe even millions) in the market may not care much if the House of Representatives is controlled by Democrats or Republicans.
The survey above also asked respondents, which candidates would improve the economy of the United States. The results were more or less similar, with 41% believing that Clinton would have this achievement, while 33% thought Trump could do that. The rest answered “none of the two people”.
Economy: Current Political Issues
The United States economy is the main issue of this election. The United States does record low unemployment and economic growth – though not as fast as expectations – good enough. It’s just that, the anxiety of its citizens is quite high due to future economic prospects. Even among investors surveyed by E * Trade, the majority of respondents only gave a B or C value for the economic growth of the Superpower country.
Clinton and Trump are currently trying to convince potential voters that they are the best choice to accelerate economic growth.
In a different survey, where all voters (not just investors) were asked who would be able to improve the economy, Trump was superior.However, there seems to be some sort of “agreement” between Wall Street and Silicon Valley (an area south of San Francisco Bay that has many companies engaged in computers and semiconductors) that Clinton will be the best choice for business and technology. Clinton is considered to have offered rapid growth for infrastructure, improving roads in the United States, bridges and IT. In addition Clinton also wants a tax hike for the “haves” .
Moody’s and the analysis
There is some concern that Trump’s plan to reduce foreign trade and impose high tariffs on imported goods from China – the US economic rival – has the potential to trigger a “trade war” which risks risking the United States in recession. Economists at Moody’s Analytics estimate that three and a half million jobs will disappear under the Trump administration and there will be (or worse) corrections in the capital market. Responding to this analysis from Moody’s, Trump’s adviser said that the analysis was “rubbish” and argued that Trump’s plan for large-scale tax cuts for businessmen would actually accelerate economic growth.
The election of Indiana state governor, Mike Pence, as Trump’s partner raises doubts about how Trump will be able to limit international trade.Pence has been known as a supporter of free trade, including one who supported a trade agreement with Panama, South Korea and Colombia when he was a member of Congress.
Clinton or Trump
Greg Valliere, head of strategy at Horizon Investments, believes that the best scenario for business is if Clinton wins – but does not win absolutely – where every policy will always be closely monitored by the Republican-controlled Congress.
However, investors must also begin to think about what if Clinton won absolutely and Democrats would “take over” the Senate. “Triumvirate” Democrats: Clinton, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer, according to Valliere is not a “desired market scenario”.
As for the scenario if Trump wins, which might cause uncertainty in the market, it is something that the market is not very fond of. Trump, which is difficult to guess, can win the fight; and this will certainly force CEOs – especially those who are trying to collaborate with China and other countries in the world – to think harder.
Indeed, some market surveys favor Clinton as a better choice. But politics, as usual, is very unique and often brings surprises. We will wait for November 8th.